Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Pascal SiakamPoints36
- Jakob PoeltlAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints33
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists16
- Myles TurnerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–131
- Q41.2Scottie Barnes defensive rebound132–131
- Q41.2Buddy Hield misses 28-foot three point shot132–131
- Q47.1Obi Toppin defensive rebound132–131
- Q48.0Gary Trent Jr. misses free throw 2 of 2132–131
- Q48.0Raptors offensive team rebound132–131
- Q48.0Gary Trent Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2132–131
- Q48.0Buddy Hield personal take foul132–131
- Q412.1Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 2 of 2132–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:22O.G. Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)TOR 126 – 125 IND · TOR 25% → 59% +35TOR 25% → 59%+35 pts
- Q41:13Buddy Hield makes two point shotTOR 126 – 127 IND · IND 40% → 65% +26IND 40% → 65%+26 pts
- Q435.2Pascal Siakam makes free throw 2 of 2TOR 128 – 127 IND · TOR 48% → 66% +18TOR 48% → 66%+18 pts
- Q431.0Tyrese Haliburton makes 7-foot two point shotTOR 128 – 129 IND · IND 32% → 71% +38IND 32% → 71%+38 pts
- Q427.0Scottie Barnes makes 1-foot driving dunkTOR 130 – 129 IND · TOR 28% → 69% +41TOR 28% → 69%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4.5
- IND 67%
- Fair odds
- IND -196
- TOR +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.3 – 121.5 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | IND and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | +94 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +123 Elo | IND 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 66.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.6 | Points scored | 128.11st of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 125.930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.4 | Margin | +2.213th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 120.01st of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 118.027th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.6 | Pace | 106.71st of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–4 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+94 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.