Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints37
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists16
- Myles TurnerRebounds9
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints38
- Trae YoungAssists8
- Saddiq BeyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game157–152
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter157–152
- Q40.1Buddy Hield makes alley oop layup (Obi Toppin assists)157–152
- Q44.1Tyrese Haliburton defensive rebound155–152
- Q48.1Dejounte Murray misses two point shot155–152
- Q412.2Tyrese Haliburton lost ball turnover (Trae Young steals)155–152
- Q433.1(00:33.3) [Hawks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Hawks] charged with a timeout155–152
- Q433.1Hawks Full timeout155–152
- Q434.1Dejounte Murray turnover155–152
- Q434.1Dejounte Murray offensive foul155–152
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:41Trae Young makes 26-foot step back jumpshotIND 147 – 146 ATL · ATL 20% → 42% +23ATL 20% → 42%+23 pts
- Q41:32Trae Young makes 22-foot step back jumpshotIND 149 – 150 ATL · ATL 39% → 62% +23ATL 39% → 62%+23 pts
- Q41:20Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three pointer (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 152 – 150 ATL · IND 37% → 73% +36IND 37% → 73%+36 pts
- Q41:08Saddiq Bey makes layupIND 152 – 152 ATL · ATL 25% → 51% +25ATL 25% → 51%+25 pts
- Q452.1Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three pointerIND 155 – 152 ATL · IND 49% → 87% +38IND 49% → 87%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 55%
- Fair odds
- ATL -118
- IND +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 119.8 – 121.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +70 | +71 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +38 Elo | ATL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.7 | Points scored | 119.95th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.8 | Points allowed | 117.924th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +2.012th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 116.16th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 114.123rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.4 | Pace | 103.45th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 14th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–422nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.