Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints18
- D'Angelo RussellAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints31
- Joel EmbiidAssists11
- Joel EmbiidRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–138
- Q410.0shot clock turnover94–138
- Q434.0Alex Fudge makes 11-foot two point shot94–138
- Q440.1Lakers defensive team rebound92–138
- Q441.0Robert Covington misses 30-foot three point jumper92–138
- Q451.2KJ Martin offensive rebound92–138
- Q454.0Furkan Korkmaz misses two point shot92–138
- Q458.1Alex Fudge lost ball turnover (Furkan Korkmaz steals)92–138
- Q41:01Mo Bamba makes dunk92–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:32Nicolas Batum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)LAL 8 – 6 PHI · PHI 54% → 60% +6PHI 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q19:00LeBron James makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 11 – 6 PHI · LAL 40% → 47% +6LAL 40% → 47%+6 pts
- Q18:18Joel Embiid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)LAL 13 – 11 PHI · PHI 53% → 60% +6PHI 53% → 60%+6 pts
- Q17:14Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Joel Embiid assists)LAL 13 – 16 PHI · PHI 64% → 70% +6PHI 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q16:29Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three pointer (Joel Embiid assists)LAL 13 – 19 PHI · PHI 70% → 75% +6PHI 70% → 75%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4
- PHI 66%
- Fair odds
- PHI -180
- LAL +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 112.1 – 116.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | +86 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +112 Elo | PHI 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 119.45th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.2 | Points allowed | 112.915th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +6.64th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 117.63rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 111.113th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.9 | Pace | 100.917th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 18th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 6–311th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.