Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints32
- Austin ReavesAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints22
- Caris LeVertAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–115
- Q40.0Max Christie defensive rebound121–115
- Q40.0Evan Mobley misses tip shot121–115
- Q43.1Evan Mobley offensive rebound121–115
- Q43.1Caris LeVert misses driving layup121–115
- Q413.1Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2121–115
- Q413.1Lakers delay of game violation120–115
- Q413.1Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2120–115
- Q413.1Jarrett Allen loose ball foul119–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:06Craig Porter makes 25-foot step back jumpshotLAL 102 – 101 CLE · CLE 36% → 51% +15CLE 36% → 51%+15 pts
- Q42:25Max Strus makes 22-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)LAL 113 – 110 CLE · CLE 10% → 27% +17CLE 10% → 27%+17 pts
- Q41:56Evan Mobley makes driving layup (Donovan Mitchell assists)LAL 113 – 112 CLE · CLE 24% → 43% +19CLE 24% → 43%+19 pts
- Q41:39LeBron James makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 115 – 112 CLE · LAL 58% → 78% +20LAL 58% → 78%+20 pts
- Q458.0Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Evan Mobley assists)LAL 117 – 115 CLE · CLE 8% → 25% +17CLE 8% → 25%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3
- CLE 61%
- Fair odds
- CLE -181
- LAL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 110.1 – 114.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +44 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAL crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +77 Elo | CLE 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 110.922nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 112.712th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.922nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 110.222nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 112.017th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.5 | Pace | 99.722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–5 | Road vs home | 3–420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.