Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Kyle LowryPoints28
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists9
- Orlando RobinsonRebounds9
Cavaliers- Craig Porter Jr.Points16
- Craig Porter Jr.Assists5
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–96
- Q41.1shot clock turnover129–96
- Q424.2Damian Jones bad pass (Caleb Martin steals)129–96
- Q442.1Haywood Highsmith makes 27-foot three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists)129–96
- Q456.0Sam Merrill makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Jones assists)126–96
- Q41:11Josh Richardson makes 15-foot pullup jump shot126–93
- Q41:33Damian Jones makes dunk (Sam Merrill assists)124–93
- Q41:52Caleb Martin out of bounds bad pass turnover124–91
- Q42:02Heat Full timeout124–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:33Kyle Lowry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 3 – 0 CLE · MIA 45% → 52% +6MIA 45% → 52%+6 pts
- Q110:53Kyle Lowry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Thomas Bryant assists)MIA 6 – 0 CLE · MIA 52% → 58% +6MIA 52% → 58%+6 pts
- Q19:53Jimmy Butler makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)MIA 9 – 2 CLE · MIA 54% → 60% +6MIA 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q13:45Caris LeVert makes 24-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter assists)MIA 24 – 20 CLE · CLE 38% → 45% +7CLE 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q13:30Kyle Lowry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 27 – 20 CLE · MIA 55% → 62% +7MIA 55% → 62%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- CLE 55%
- Fair odds
- CLE -120
- MIA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 110.7 – 112.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +16 | +44 | MIA: Missing Bam Adebayo −28 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +32 Elo | CLE 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.2 | Points scored | 111.920th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.9 | Points allowed | 111.611th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.417th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 110.919th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 110.513th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.8 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+16 Elo- Bam Adebayo left hip injury−28 Elo
Cavaliers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.