Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints32
- Kyle KuzmaAssists8
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds12
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–107
- Q40.0Pistons offensive team rebound126–107
- Q40.0Isaiah Livers misses 7-foot pullup jump shot126–107
- Q42.1shot clock turnover126–107
- Q423.1Jared Butler defensive rebound126–107
- Q427.2Isaiah Livers misses 27-foot three point jumper126–107
- Q438.2Isaiah Livers defensive rebound126–107
- Q438.2Eugene Omoruyi misses layup126–107
- Q442.1Eugene Omoruyi offensive rebound126–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:15Jaden Ivey makes step back jumpshot (Jalen Duren assists)WSH 58 – 57 DET · DET 44% → 53% +9DET 44% → 53%+9 pts
- Q310:07Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point shot (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 63 – 57 DET · WSH 53% → 62% +9WSH 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q39:48Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)WSH 63 – 60 DET · DET 37% → 46% +9DET 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q31:33Isaiah Livers makes 27-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)WSH 88 – 80 DET · DET 17% → 25% +8DET 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q31.2Kyle Kuzma makes 32-foot three pointer (Corey Kispert assists)WSH 94 – 83 DET · WSH 77% → 85% +8WSH 77% → 85%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pistons 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2
- DET 58%
- Fair odds
- DET -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 115.3 – 117.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1413 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −63 | −34 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +58 Elo | DET 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 109.825th of 30 |
| 29th of 30125.1 | Points allowed | 117.222nd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.6 | Margin | −7.425th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 107.727th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.2 | Defense rating | 115.023rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.9 | Pace | 101.911th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 1–627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.