Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints42
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints30
- Kyle KuzmaAssists13
- Daniel GaffordRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game142–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter142–129
- Q417.2Eugene Omoruyi makes free throw 2 of 2142–129
- Q417.2Eugene Omoruyi makes free throw 1 of 2142–128
- Q417.2Robin Lopez shooting foul142–127
- Q424.2shot clock turnover142–127
- Q437.2Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound142–127
- Q442.1AJ Green misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot142–127
- Q448.1AJ Green defensive rebound142–127
- Q450.1Eugene Omoruyi misses 30-foot three point jumper142–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:50Kyle Kuzma makes 28-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)MIL 96 – 94 WSH · WSH 23% → 32% +9WSH 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q31:38Corey Kispert makes 23-foot three point jumperMIL 98 – 97 WSH · WSH 25% → 36% +10WSH 25% → 36%+10 pts
- Q31:07Kyle Kuzma makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)MIL 100 – 100 WSH · WSH 29% → 40% +11WSH 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q49:45Giannis Antetokounmpo makes layupMIL 109 – 108 WSH · MIL 55% → 63% +9MIL 55% → 63%+9 pts
- Q49:10Cameron Payne makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Beasley assists)MIL 112 – 108 WSH · MIL 63% → 76% +12MIL 63% → 76%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6.5
- MIL 74%
- Fair odds
- MIL -227
- WSH +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 120.3 – 114.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +68 | −65 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +181 Elo | MIL 73.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 69.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 114.111th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 122.928th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −8.827th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 108.423rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 116.827th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.8 | Pace | 105.32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 13th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 1–424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.