Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints28
- Kyle KuzmaAssists10
- Daniel GaffordRebounds16
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints34
- LaMelo BallAssists13
- Mark WilliamsRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–117
- Q41.2Mark Williams defensive rebound114–117
- Q41.2Kyle Kuzma misses 33-foot three point jumper114–117
- Q417.0LaMelo Ball makes free throw 2 of 2114–117
- Q417.0Landry Shamet enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly114–116
- Q417.0LaMelo Ball makes free throw 1 of 2114–116
- Q417.0Bilal Coulibaly personal take foul114–115
- Q418.1Daniel Gafford makes 1-foot dunk (Kyle Kuzma assists)114–115
- Q428.0Wizards Full timeout112–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:37Daniel Gafford makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 108 – 108 CHA · WSH 26% → 47% +21WSH 26% → 47%+21 pts
- Q41:16Miles Bridges makes driving layupWSH 108 – 110 CHA · CHA 53% → 76% +23CHA 53% → 76%+23 pts
- Q41:02Kyle Kuzma makes 15-foot two point shotWSH 110 – 110 CHA · WSH 22% → 48% +26WSH 22% → 48%+26 pts
- Q447.0Miles Bridges makes 28-foot step back jumpshot (LaMelo Ball assists)WSH 110 – 113 CHA · CHA 52% → 90% +38CHA 52% → 90%+38 pts
- Q418.1Daniel Gafford makes 1-foot dunk (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 114 – 115 CHA · WSH 2% → 25% +22WSH 2% → 25%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hornets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -3.5
- CHA 64%
- Fair odds
- CHA -196
- WSH +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 115.4 – 120.5 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −57 | +20 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing James Bouknight −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +98 Elo | CHA 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 66.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 113.713th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.4 | Points allowed | 122.226th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.2 | Margin | −8.527th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 110.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.4 | Defense rating | 118.429th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.2 | Pace | 102.310th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 2–624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+20 Elo- James Bouknight left knee surgery−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.