Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints45
- Jayson TatumAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds13
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints36
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Mark WilliamsRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game118–121
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime118–121
- OT0.0Jrue Holiday bad pass (Miles Bridges steals)118–121
- OT0.1P.J. Washington enters the game for LaMelo Ball118–121
- OT0.1Celtics Full timeout118–121
- OT0.1Gordon Hayward makes free throw 2 of 2118–121
- OT0.1Gordon Hayward makes free throw 1 of 2118–120
- OT0.1Sam Hauser personal foul118–119
- OT1.1Jrue Holiday personal foul118–119
- OT1.1Miles Bridges defensive rebound118–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47.0LaMelo Ball makes driving layup (Gordon Hayward assists)BOS 108 – 108 CHA · CHA 2% → 49% +48CHA 2% → 49%+48 pts
- OT2:13Gordon Hayward makes 14-foot jumper (Brandon Miller assists)BOS 113 – 114 CHA · CHA 38% → 57% +19CHA 38% → 57%+19 pts
- OT57.1Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 116 – 114 CHA · BOS 37% → 78% +41BOS 37% → 78%+41 pts
- OT45.0Gordon Hayward makes dunk (LaMelo Ball assists)BOS 116 – 116 CHA · CHA 19% → 49% +29CHA 19% → 49%+29 pts
- OT6.1Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)BOS 116 – 119 CHA · CHA 49% → >99% +50CHA 49% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -6.5
- BOS 74%
- Fair odds
- BOS -156
- CHA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 115.9 – 112.5 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +74 | −9 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing James Bouknight −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +183 Elo | BOS 74.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 113.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.5 | Points allowed | 122.627th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | −9.528th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 110.119th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.7 | Defense rating | 119.430th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.9 | Pace | 102.67th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–2 | Road vs home | 1–627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−9 Elo- James Bouknight left knee surgery−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.