Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints26
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Clint CapelaRebounds11
Wizards- Jared ButlerPoints13
- Kyle KuzmaAssists8
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–108
- Q49.1Jared Butler makes 29-foot three pointer136–108
- Q414.1shot clock turnover136–105
- Q438.1Jared Butler makes 1-foot layup (Eugene Omoruyi assists)136–105
- Q439.1Eugene Omoruyi offensive rebound136–103
- Q441.1Eugene Omoruyi misses driving floating jump shot136–103
- Q456.1Patty Mills makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trent Forrest assists)136–103
- Q41:16Eugene Omoruyi makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Anthony Gill assists)133–103
- Q41:30AJ Griffin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Garrison Mathews assists)133–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:46Landry Shamet makes 27-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)ATL 34 – 33 WSH · WSH 24% → 30% +6WSH 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q210:41Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)ATL 38 – 36 WSH · WSH 23% → 28% +6WSH 23% → 28%+6 pts
- Q210:27Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 41 – 36 WSH · ATL 72% → 77% +6ATL 72% → 77%+6 pts
- Q25:40Trae Young makes 26-foot three pointerATL 53 – 46 WSH · ATL 75% → 81% +6ATL 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q22:38De'Andre Hunter makes 27-foot step back jumpshotATL 60 – 54 WSH · ATL 73% → 79% +7ATL 73% → 79%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -6.5
- ATL 74%
- Fair odds
- ATL -234
- WSH +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 124.5 – 118.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +73 | −27 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +178 Elo | ATL 73.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 70.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.1 | Points scored | 116.08th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.6 | Points allowed | 124.329th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −8.328th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 110.520th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 118.529th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.4 | Pace | 105.02nd of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 8th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 1–527th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.