Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints26
- Jordan PooleAssists7
- Daniel GaffordRebounds9
Bucks- Brook LopezPoints39
- Damian LillardAssists10
- Malik BeasleyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–131
- Q40.1Wizards offensive team rebound128–131
- Q40.1Kyle Kuzma misses 37-foot three point pullup jump shot128–131
- Q43.0Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2128–131
- Q43.0Daniel Gafford enters the game for Tyus Jones128–130
- Q43.0Cameron Payne enters the game for Brook Lopez128–130
- Q43.0Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2128–130
- Q43.0Landry Shamet personal take foul128–129
- Q44.0Corey Kispert enters the game for Daniel Gafford128–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:34Landry Shamet makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 114 – 114 MIL · WSH 22% → 41% +20WSH 22% → 41%+20 pts
- Q42:57Kyle Kuzma makes 11-foot two point shot (Daniel Gafford assists)WSH 116 – 116 MIL · WSH 27% → 42% +15WSH 27% → 42%+15 pts
- Q42:40Brook Lopez makes 25-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)WSH 116 – 119 MIL · MIL 57% → 80% +23MIL 57% → 80%+23 pts
- Q42:10Damian Lillard makes two point shotWSH 118 – 121 MIL · MIL 66% → 82% +16MIL 66% → 82%+16 pts
- Q416.2Kyle Kuzma makes 23-foot three point shot (Corey Kispert assists)WSH 126 – 127 MIL · WSH <1% → 23% +22WSH <1% → 23%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -9.5
- MIL 82%
- Fair odds
- MIL -366
- WSH +366 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 113.7 – 123.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | +78 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +269 Elo | MIL 82.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 78.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 78.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 120.54th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 117.823rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.7 | Margin | +2.712th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 116.94th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 114.322nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.0 | Pace | 102.86th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 6–15th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.