Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Brook LopezPoints28
- Khris MiddletonAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints26
- Jaylen BrownAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–119
- Q40.0(00:00) [Bucks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)116–119
- Q40.0Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point shot116–119
- Q43.1Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2113–119
- Q43.1Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2113–118
- Q43.1Giannis Antetokounmpo personal take foul113–117
- Q47.0Brook Lopez makes two point shot113–117
- Q47.0Brook Lopez offensive rebound111–117
- Q410.0Damian Lillard misses 24-foot three point jumper111–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:37Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three point shot (Derrick White assists)MIL 0 – 5 BOS · BOS 58% → 64% +6BOS 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q16:09Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)MIL 7 – 15 BOS · BOS 65% → 71% +6BOS 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q210:53Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)MIL 22 – 32 BOS · BOS 70% → 76% +6BOS 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q310:25Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three pointer (Derrick White assists)MIL 59 – 70 BOS · BOS 75% → 82% +7BOS 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q444.0Damian Lillard makes 27-foot step back jumpshotMIL 111 – 114 BOS · MIL <1% → 10% +10MIL <1% → 10%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -2.5
- BOS 59%
- Fair odds
- BOS -118
- MIL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 114.9 – 116.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +88 | +71 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +65 Elo | BOS 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.8 | Points scored | 117.28th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 106.63rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.1 | Margin | +10.61st of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 116.66th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 106.13rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.9 | Pace | 98.925th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+88 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.