Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints22
- Fred VanVleetAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds13
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints27
- LeBron JamesAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–107
- Q410.2shot clock turnover97–107
- Q433.1Max Christie defensive rebound97–107
- Q435.0Cam Whitmore misses free throw 2 of 297–107
- Q435.0Rockets offensive team rebound97–107
- Q435.0Cam Whitmore misses free throw 1 of 297–107
- Q435.0Maxwell Lewis shooting foul97–107
- Q435.1Cam Whitmore offensive rebound97–107
- Q436.1Cam Whitmore misses driving floating jump shot97–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:42Jalen Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 11 – 5 LAL · HOU 54% → 60% +6HOU 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q18:11D'Angelo Russell makes 27-foot three pointerHOU 13 – 8 LAL · LAL 35% → 42% +6LAL 35% → 42%+6 pts
- Q15:42Aaron Holiday makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 21 – 12 LAL · HOU 61% → 67% +6HOU 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q14:20Max Christie makes 27-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)HOU 21 – 17 LAL · LAL 37% → 43% +7LAL 37% → 43%+7 pts
- Q12:02Alperen Sengun makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)HOU 26 – 23 LAL · HOU 48% → 55% +7HOU 48% → 55%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- LAL 50%
- Fair odds
- LAL -111
- HOU +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 111.5 – 112.2 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +35 | −8 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +3 Elo | LAL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 52.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 112.820th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.3 | Points allowed | 114.319th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.6 | Margin | −1.522nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 109.524th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.5 | Defense rating | 111.012th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 101.910th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–7 | Road vs home | 7–27th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–1 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.