San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints22
- Cedi OsmanAssists6
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds10
Timberwolves- Mike ConleyPoints18
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–102
- Q411.0Keldon Johnson makes free throw 2 of 294–102
- Q411.0Spurs offensive team rebound93–102
- Q411.0Keldon Johnson misses free throw 1 of 293–102
- Q411.0Anthony Edwards personal foul93–102
- Q415.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 293–102
- Q415.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 293–100
- Q415.1Keldon Johnson personal foul93–99
- Q417.0Keldon Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)93–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:50Mike Conley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)SA 53 – 49 MIN · MIN 53% → 61% +9MIN 53% → 61%+9 pts
- Q34:41Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointerSA 62 – 63 MIN · MIN 63% → 72% +9MIN 63% → 72%+9 pts
- Q49:00Troy Brown Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)SA 77 – 78 MIN · MIN 55% → 69% +14MIN 55% → 69%+14 pts
- Q47:57Anthony Edwards makes 22-foot three point jumper (Troy Brown Jr. assists)SA 77 – 81 MIN · MIN 68% → 81% +12MIN 68% → 81%+12 pts
- Q47:15Naz Reid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)SA 79 – 84 MIN · MIN 73% → 84% +12MIN 73% → 84%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -12
- MIN 87%
- Fair odds
- MIN -414
- SA +414 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 108.5 – 119.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | +79 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +332 Elo | MIN 87.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 79.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 80.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Points scored | 112.819th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 105.91st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.4 | Margin | +6.93rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.8 | Offense rating | 111.717th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 104.81st of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.3 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 25th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 9–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.