Minnesota Timberwolves at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints28
- Mike ConleyAssists10
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Hornets- Terry RozierPoints23
- Terry RozierAssists7
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–117
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound123–117
- Q40.0Brandon Miller misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot123–117
- Q44.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2123–117
- Q44.0Rudy Gobert enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns122–117
- Q44.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2122–117
- Q44.0Gordon Hayward personal take foul121–117
- Q45.2Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Rudy Gobert121–117
- Q45.2Timberwolves Full timeout121–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:40Karl-Anthony Towns makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 97 – 97 CHA · MIN 38% → 54% +15MIN 38% → 54%+15 pts
- Q46:45P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ish Smith assists)MIN 99 – 102 CHA · CHA 47% → 63% +16CHA 47% → 63%+16 pts
- Q44:44Karl-Anthony Towns makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 105 – 106 CHA · MIN 28% → 46% +19MIN 28% → 46%+19 pts
- Q43:22Terry Rozier makes 25-foot step back jumpshotMIN 108 – 109 CHA · CHA 33% → 55% +23CHA 33% → 55%+23 pts
- Q43:02Troy Brown Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 111 – 109 CHA · MIN 44% → 68% +24MIN 44% → 68%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 69%
- Fair odds
- MIN -143
- CHA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 114.8 – 112.1 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | −3 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +141 Elo | MIN 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 113.616th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.3 | Points allowed | 122.126th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.0 | Margin | −8.528th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 110.721st of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.0 | Defense rating | 119.030th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.910th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–3 | Road vs home | 3–625th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.