Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Terry RozierPoints37
- Terry RozierAssists13
- Mark WilliamsRebounds12
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints26
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–128
- Q40.1Mark Williams defensive rebound129–128
- Q42.1Cameron Johnson misses 25-foot three point shot129–128
- Q45.1Dorian Finney-Smith defensive rebound129–128
- Q48.0Terry Rozier misses 19-foot step back jumpshot129–128
- Q429.1Nic Claxton makes two point shot129–128
- Q430.2Nic Claxton offensive rebound129–126
- Q434.1Spencer Dinwiddie misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot129–126
- Q439.1Nets Full timeout129–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:38Terry Rozier makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Gordon Hayward assists)CHA 123 – 120 BKN · CHA 44% → 70% +26CHA 44% → 70%+26 pts
- Q41:33Nic Claxton makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Mikal Bridges assists)CHA 125 – 124 BKN · BKN 22% → 43% +20BKN 22% → 43%+20 pts
- Q457.1Spencer Dinwiddie makes 13-foot two point shotCHA 127 – 126 BKN · BKN 15% → 39% +24BKN 15% → 39%+24 pts
- Q439.2Terry Rozier makes 19-foot step back jumpshotCHA 129 – 126 BKN · CHA 65% → 90% +25CHA 65% → 90%+25 pts
- Q429.1Nic Claxton makes two point shotCHA 129 – 128 BKN · BKN 7% → 32% +26BKN 7% → 32%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -8.5
- BKN 80%
- Fair odds
- BKN -266
- CHA +266 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 112.2 – 119.6 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +73 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +239 Elo | BKN 79.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 72.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 115.311th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.8 | Points allowed | 113.919th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.1 | Margin | +1.414th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 114.710th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 113.319th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.3 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 6–415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–1 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.