Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints18
- Gordon HaywardAssists6
- Mark WilliamsRebounds12
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints25
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Julius RandleRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–115
- Q419.0James Bouknight makes two point shot91–115
- Q422.1James Bouknight offensive rebound89–115
- Q425.0Theo Maledon misses 24-foot three point jumper89–115
- Q436.1Donte DiVincenzo makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Miles McBride assists)89–115
- Q448.1Nick Smith Jr. makes 20-foot pullup jump shot89–112
- Q41:02Josh Hart personal foul87–112
- Q41:12Miles McBride enters the game for Immanuel Quickley87–112
- Q41:12DaQuan Jeffries enters the game for Julius Randle87–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:59Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three point shot (Terry Rozier assists)CHA 53 – 56 NY · CHA 23% → 31% +8CHA 23% → 31%+8 pts
- Q36:21P.J. Washington makes 24-foot three pointerCHA 58 – 60 NY · CHA 25% → 34% +9CHA 25% → 34%+9 pts
- Q35:26Jalen Brunson makes 18-foot step back jumpshotCHA 58 – 62 NY · NY 66% → 72% +6NY 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q34:20P.J. Washington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Gordon Hayward assists)CHA 61 – 64 NY · CHA 22% → 31% +9CHA 22% → 31%+9 pts
- Q32:25Josh Hart makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)CHA 63 – 73 NY · NY 81% → 88% +7NY 81% → 88%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -6.5
- NY 74%
- Fair odds
- NY -186
- CHA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.6 – 115.3 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +13 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +186 Elo | NY 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 65.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 109.725th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.2 | Points allowed | 105.92nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.1 | Margin | +3.89th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 112.012th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 108.26th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.7 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–4 | Road vs home | 4–314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–2 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.