Miami Heat at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints23
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists4
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints24
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Julius RandleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–100
- Q40.0Julius Randle defensive rebound98–100
- Q40.0Jimmy Butler misses 25-foot step back jumpshot98–100
- Q49.1Josh Richardson defensive rebound98–100
- Q411.1Jalen Brunson misses free throw 2 of 298–100
- Q411.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 298–100
- Q411.1Kyle Lowry personal foul98–99
- Q415.0Immanuel Quickley enters the game for Mitchell Robinson98–99
- Q415.0Donte DiVincenzo enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein98–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:20Jalen Brunson makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotMIA 96 – 93 NY · NY 12% → 24% +12NY 12% → 24%+12 pts
- Q41:59RJ Barrett makes two point shotMIA 96 – 96 NY · NY 30% → 50% +20NY 30% → 50%+20 pts
- Q41:24Jalen Brunson makes 20-foot step back jumpshotMIA 96 – 99 NY · NY 62% → 82% +20NY 62% → 82%+20 pts
- Q415.0Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2MIA 98 – 99 NY · MIA 7% → 24% +16MIA 7% → 24%+16 pts
- Q411.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2MIA 98 – 100 NY · NY 80% → 95% +15NY 80% → 95%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -0.5
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -107
- NY +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 109.7 – 109.2 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +59 | +18 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +10 Elo | MIA 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Points scored | 110.124th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.1 | Points allowed | 105.82nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +4.47th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 112.212th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 107.87th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.6 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.