Phoenix Suns at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints28
- Devin BookerAssists11
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds10
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints35
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–113
- Q40.0Knicks offensive team rebound116–113
- Q40.0Jalen Brunson misses 32-foot three point shot116–113
- Q41.1Nassir Little enters the game for Yuta Watanabe116–113
- Q41.1Keita Bates-Diop enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic116–113
- Q41.1Jalen Brunson enters the game for Josh Hart116–113
- Q41.1Knicks Full timeout116–113
- Q41.1Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point shot (Jordan Goodwin assists)116–113
- Q421.2Yuta Watanabe enters the game for Keita Bates-Diop113–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:56Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot step back jumpshotPHX 107 – 107 NY · NY 32% → 51% +19NY 32% → 51%+19 pts
- Q43:37Devin Booker makes two point shot (Jusuf Nurkic assists)PHX 109 – 107 NY · PHX 49% → 64% +15PHX 49% → 64%+15 pts
- Q41:36Julius Randle makes dunk (Jalen Brunson assists)PHX 111 – 109 NY · NY 13% → 29% +16NY 13% → 29%+16 pts
- Q421.2Jalen Brunson makes 15-foot two point shotPHX 113 – 113 NY · NY 11% → 50% +39NY 11% → 50%+39 pts
- Q41.1Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point shot (Jordan Goodwin assists)PHX 116 – 113 NY · PHX 50% → >99% +50PHX 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1.5
- NY 56%
- Fair odds
- NY -117
- PHX +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 111.2 – 112.4 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | +12 | PHX: Missing Kevin Durant −47 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +40 Elo | NY 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 109.527th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 105.32nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | +4.27th of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 111.514th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 107.26th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.5 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–2 | Road vs home | 4–211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+46 Elo- Kevin Durant injury/illness−47 Elo
Knicks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.