Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints23
- Terry RozierAssists9
- Miles BridgesRebounds10
Magic- Cole AnthonyPoints30
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Cole AnthonyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–130
- Q412.1shot clock turnover117–130
- Q437.0Brandon Miller makes 3-foot two point shot (Gordon Hayward assists)117–130
- Q450.1Cole Anthony makes two point shot (Gary Harris assists)115–130
- Q453.0Terry Rozier bad pass (Gary Harris steals)115–128
- Q41:02Cole Anthony makes free throw 2 of 2115–128
- Q41:02Cole Anthony makes free throw 1 of 2115–127
- Q41:02Gordon Hayward personal foul115–126
- Q41:04Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three pointer115–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:10Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three pointer (P.J. Washington assists)CHA 74 – 78 ORL · CHA 19% → 27% +8CHA 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q34:20Moritz Wagner makes 24-foot three point jumper (Gary Harris assists)CHA 76 – 83 ORL · ORL 73% → 81% +8ORL 73% → 81%+8 pts
- Q31:02P.J. Washington makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bryce McGowens assists)CHA 86 – 91 ORL · CHA 15% → 23% +8CHA 15% → 23%+8 pts
- Q49:17P.J. Washington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Theo Maledon assists)CHA 97 – 100 ORL · CHA 18% → 29% +11CHA 18% → 29%+11 pts
- Q47:47Jalen Suggs makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)CHA 98 – 106 ORL · ORL 79% → 89% +9ORL 79% → 89%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Magic 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -7
- ORL 76%
- Fair odds
- ORL -199
- CHA +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.7 – 116.0 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | +35 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Missing Jonathan Isaac −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +202 Elo | ORL 76.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 111.621st of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.6 | Points allowed | 106.83rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.7 | Margin | +4.86th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 109.724th of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 105.01st of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.3 | Pace | 101.613th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 6–16th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+35 Elo- Jonathan Isaac injury/illness−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.