Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints26
- Derrick WhiteAssists4
- Luke KornetRebounds6
Magic- Moritz WagnerPoints27
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Franz WagnerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–113
- Q42.0Jalen Suggs defensive rebound96–113
- Q43.1Dalano Banton misses driving layup96–113
- Q49.1Franz Wagner makes 3-foot two point shot96–113
- Q432.0Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 296–111
- Q432.0Oshae Brissett enters the game for Al Horford95–111
- Q432.0Dalano Banton enters the game for Jaylen Brown95–111
- Q432.0Lamar Stevens enters the game for Jayson Tatum95–111
- Q432.0Celtics offensive team rebound95–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:02Kristaps Porzingis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 51 – 47 ORL · BOS 53% → 62% +8BOS 53% → 62%+8 pts
- Q38:28Franz Wagner makes 25-foot three point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)BOS 62 – 58 ORL · ORL 29% → 37% +9ORL 29% → 37%+9 pts
- Q37:51Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)BOS 62 – 61 ORL · ORL 37% → 47% +9ORL 37% → 47%+9 pts
- Q35:31Paolo Banchero makes 24-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)BOS 62 – 67 ORL · ORL 57% → 66% +10ORL 57% → 66%+10 pts
- Q33:58Derrick White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 68 – 67 ORL · BOS 43% → 54% +11BOS 43% → 54%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1
- BOS 54%
- Fair odds
- BOS -102
- ORL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 111.3 – 111.2 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1593 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +67 | +41 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +28 Elo | BOS 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 111.521st of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.2 | Points allowed | 107.55th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+10.1 | Margin | +4.09th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 109.623rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.5 | Defense rating | 105.72nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.2 | Pace | 101.712th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 5–16th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.