Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Caleb MartinPoints22
- Josh RichardsonAssists5
- Kevin LoveRebounds10
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints24
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists11
- Cameron JohnsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–112
- Q410.0shot clock turnover97–112
- Q432.1Armoni Brooks defensive rebound97–112
- Q436.1Cole Swider misses 26-foot three point shot97–112
- Q440.1Caleb Martin defensive rebound97–112
- Q445.1Armoni Brooks misses 23-foot three point jumper97–112
- Q459.1Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound97–112
- Q41:01Jamal Cain misses free throw 1 of 197–112
- Q41:01Trendon Watford shooting foul97–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:53Jamal Cain makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin Love assists)MIA 27 – 28 BKN · MIA 33% → 39% +7MIA 33% → 39%+7 pts
- Q210:36Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)MIA 27 – 31 BKN · BKN 60% → 67% +7BKN 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q210:10Royce O'Neale makes 31-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)MIA 29 – 34 BKN · BKN 63% → 70% +7BKN 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q28:56Cole Swider makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)MIA 36 – 39 BKN · MIA 28% → 35% +7MIA 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q24:44Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)MIA 45 – 52 BKN · BKN 68% → 74% +7BKN 68% → 74%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1.5
- BKN 56%
- Fair odds
- BKN -147
- MIA +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 111.0 – 114.0 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −4 | +17 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −32 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +43 Elo | BKN 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 59.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.6 | Points scored | 115.411th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.6 | Points allowed | 116.221st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+3.1 | Margin | −0.921st of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 113.69th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 114.521st of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.6 | Pace | 100.820th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 3–419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−4 Elo- Jimmy Butler III injury/illness−32 Elo
Nets
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–1 BKN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.