Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints17
- Dennis SchroderAssists9
- Scottie BarnesRebounds11
Nets- Spencer DinwiddiePoints23
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists8
- Mikal BridgesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–115
- Q40.0O.G. Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)103–115
- Q46.1Spencer Dinwiddie makes free throw 2 of 2100–115
- Q46.1Trendon Watford enters the game for Cameron Johnson100–114
- Q46.1Spencer Dinwiddie makes free throw 1 of 2100–114
- Q46.1Scottie Barnes personal take foul100–113
- Q46.1Spencer Dinwiddie defensive rebound100–113
- Q49.1Gary Trent Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper100–113
- Q410.2Scottie Barnes offensive rebound100–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:02Chris Boucher makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 85 – 84 BKN · TOR 38% → 53% +15TOR 38% → 53%+15 pts
- Q47:39Royce O'Neale makes 28-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)TOR 85 – 87 BKN · BKN 47% → 62% +15BKN 47% → 62%+15 pts
- Q47:01Royce O'Neale makes 28-foot three pointerTOR 87 – 91 BKN · BKN 57% → 72% +15BKN 57% → 72%+15 pts
- Q43:16Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)TOR 96 – 100 BKN · BKN 59% → 80% +21BKN 59% → 80%+21 pts
- Q41:55Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three pointer (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)TOR 100 – 106 BKN · BKN 79% → 94% +15BKN 79% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -2
- BKN 57%
- Fair odds
- BKN -121
- TOR +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 113.2 – 114.6 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | +33 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +50 Elo | BKN 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 115.311th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 114.620th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.816th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 114.89th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 114.021st of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.5 | Pace | 99.823rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 18th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 5–415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.