Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints36
- Nikola VucevicAssists5
- Nikola VucevicRebounds8
Raptors- OG AnunobyPoints26
- Pascal SiakamAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–121
- Q41.1Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound108–121
- Q41.1Jakob Poeltl misses free throw 2 of 2108–121
- Q41.1Raptors offensive team rebound108–121
- Q41.1Jakob Poeltl misses free throw 1 of 2108–121
- Q41.1Torrey Craig enters the game for DeMar DeRozan108–121
- Q41.1O.G. Anunoby makes technical free throw108–121
- Q41.1DeMar DeRozan ejected108–120
- Q41.1DeMar DeRozan technical foul (1st technical foul)108–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:15Coby White makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotCHI 5 – 2 TOR · CHI 35% → 41% +6CHI 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q18:22Scottie Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)CHI 5 – 9 TOR · TOR 67% → 72% +6TOR 67% → 72%+6 pts
- Q45:55Coby White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 94 – 103 TOR · CHI 3% → 7% +4CHI 3% → 7%+4 pts
- Q45:24Patrick Williams makes driving dunkCHI 96 – 103 TOR · CHI 6% → 11% +5CHI 6% → 11%+5 pts
- Q44:22O.G. Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)CHI 96 – 106 TOR · TOR 91% → 97% +6TOR 91% → 97%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -4
- TOR 66%
- Fair odds
- TOR -187
- CHI +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 108.9 – 113.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −13 | +28 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +116 Elo | TOR 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.4 | Points scored | 112.020th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 113.215th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.9 | Margin | −1.221st of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 109.225th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 110.311th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.5 | Pace | 101.017th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 4–417th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.