Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Jakob PoeltlPoints18
- Pascal SiakamAssists6
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds13
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints24
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–105
- Q41.1Jakob Poeltl enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.102–105
- Q41.1Georges Niang enters the game for Isaac Okoro102–105
- Q41.1Cavaliers Full timeout102–105
- Q41.1Donovan Mitchell enters the game for Caris LeVert102–105
- Q41.1Isaac Okoro enters the game for Jarrett Allen102–105
- Q41.1Darius Garland enters the game for Tristan Thompson102–105
- Q41.1Gary Trent Jr. steps out of bounds turnover102–105
- Q49.1Dennis Schroder enters the game for Malachi Flynn102–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:41Dennis Schroder makes driving layupTOR 95 – 97 CLE · TOR 13% → 29% +16TOR 13% → 29%+16 pts
- Q41:20Evan Mobley makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jarrett Allen assists)TOR 95 – 99 CLE · CLE 73% → 89% +16CLE 73% → 89%+16 pts
- Q454.1Jarrett Allen makes layupTOR 97 – 101 CLE · CLE 77% → 94% +16CLE 77% → 94%+16 pts
- Q445.0Pascal Siakam makes tip shotTOR 99 – 101 CLE · TOR 5% → 20% +16TOR 5% → 20%+16 pts
- Q415.2Dennis Schroder makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 102 – 103 CLE · TOR <1% → 24% +24TOR <1% → 24%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Raptors 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -0.5
- TOR 53%
- Fair odds
- TOR -106
- CLE +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 113.5 – 113.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +48 | +39 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +18 Elo | TOR 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 111.122nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 113.317th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −2.122nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 109.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 112.018th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.6 | Pace | 100.222nd of 30 |
| 12th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 16th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 3–522nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.