Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Simone FontecchioPoints16
- Simone FontecchioAssists5
- John CollinsRebounds12
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints32
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–101
- Q44.1shot clock turnover90–101
- Q429.1Collin Sexton makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot (Keyonte George assists)90–101
- Q434.1Karl-Anthony Towns lost ball turnover (Ochai Agbaji steals)87–101
- Q448.1Collin Sexton traveling87–101
- Q456.0Mike Conley bad pass (Ochai Agbaji steals)87–101
- Q41:01Collin Sexton lost ball turnover (Troy Brown Jr. steals)87–101
- Q41:08Karl-Anthony Towns bad pass (Walker Kessler steals)87–101
- Q41:11Karl-Anthony Towns offensive rebound87–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:01Troy Brown Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)UTAH 35 – 26 MIN · MIN 42% → 50% +8MIN 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q26:46Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Troy Brown Jr. assists)UTAH 35 – 29 MIN · MIN 49% → 56% +8MIN 49% → 56%+8 pts
- Q220.0Troy Brown Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)UTAH 47 – 49 MIN · MIN 66% → 74% +8MIN 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q39:34Ochai Agbaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)UTAH 54 – 51 MIN · UTAH 32% → 41% +9UTAH 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q39:11Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)UTAH 54 – 54 MIN · MIN 59% → 68% +9MIN 59% → 68%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -9.5
- MIN 82%
- Fair odds
- MIN -308
- UTAH +308 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 109.0 – 117.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −22 | +31 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +264 Elo | MIN 82.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 75.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 112.919th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 106.22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.8 | Margin | +6.84th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 111.418th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 104.71st of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.817th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 8–13rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.