Atlanta Hawks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints45
- Trae YoungAssists14
- Clint CapelaRebounds9
Spurs- Jeremy SochanPoints33
- Zach CollinsAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game137–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter137–135
- Q42.1Jeremy Sochan turnover137–135
- Q42.1Jeremy Sochan offensive charge137–135
- Q44.0Saddiq Bey bad pass (Jeremy Sochan steals)137–135
- Q46.0Hawks Full timeout137–135
- Q46.0Keldon Johnson makes two point shot137–135
- Q46.0Keldon Johnson offensive rebound137–133
- Q410.1Victor Wembanyama misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot137–133
- Q415.1Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound137–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:33De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)ATL 117 – 117 SA · ATL 38% → 55% +17ATL 38% → 55%+17 pts
- Q41:54Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)ATL 127 – 126 SA · SA 13% → 37% +24SA 13% → 37%+24 pts
- Q41:34Dejounte Murray makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)ATL 130 – 126 SA · ATL 64% → 89% +25ATL 64% → 89%+25 pts
- Q41:19Zach Collins makes 1-foot layup (Jeremy Sochan assists)ATL 130 – 128 SA · SA 9% → 25% +15SA 9% → 25%+15 pts
- Q459.2Trae Young makes 14-foot two point shotATL 132 – 128 SA · ATL 78% → 93% +15ATL 78% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hawks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -5
- ATL 69%
- Fair odds
- ATL -168
- SA +168 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 121.9 – 117.9 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +51 | −42 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Missing Sandro Mamukelashvili −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +142 Elo | ATL 69.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.5 | Points scored | 110.525th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.5 | Points allowed | 123.428th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −12.930th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 104.728th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 116.927th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.2 | Pace | 104.24th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 12th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 1–828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−42 Elo- Sandro Mamukelashvili injury/illness−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.