Atlanta Hawks at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints33
- Trae YoungAssists7
- Saddiq BeyRebounds8
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints34
- Derrick WhiteAssists11
- Al HorfordRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–113
- Q417.2Al Horford defensive rebound103–113
- Q421.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses running pullup jump shot103–113
- Q425.0Bogdan Bogdanovic defensive rebound103–113
- Q428.1Jaylen Brown misses 10-foot two point shot103–113
- Q447.0Payton Pritchard enters the game for Sam Hauser103–113
- Q447.0(00:47.1) [Celtics] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Celtics] retain their timeout103–113
- Q447.0Celtics Coach's Challenge103–113
- Q447.0Celtics defensive team rebound103–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:44Jayson Tatum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)ATL 34 – 40 BOS · BOS 64% → 71% +7BOS 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q33:46Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three pointerATL 77 – 83 BOS · ATL 18% → 25% +8ATL 18% → 25%+8 pts
- Q32:50Sam Hauser makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)ATL 77 – 88 BOS · BOS 81% → 87% +7BOS 81% → 87%+7 pts
- Q32:08Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotATL 80 – 88 BOS · ATL 12% → 19% +7ATL 12% → 19%+7 pts
- Q411:25Sam Hauser makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Derrick White assists)ATL 82 – 93 BOS · BOS 83% → 90% +7BOS 83% → 90%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3
- BOS 62%
- Fair odds
- BOS -138
- ATL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.3 – 118.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +82 | +20 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +89 Elo | BOS 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.9 | Points scored | 116.08th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.7 | Points allowed | 107.65th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +8.41st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 115.28th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 106.85th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.4 | Pace | 99.325th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 4th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.