Atlanta Hawks at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Bogdan BogdanovicPoints18
- Trae YoungAssists10
- Clint CapelaRebounds9
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints40
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Evan MobleyRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–128
- Q48.0Evan Mobley defensive rebound105–128
- Q411.0AJ Griffin misses 34-foot step back jumpshot105–128
- Q418.18 second turnover105–128
- Q424.0Evan Mobley defensive rebound105–128
- Q426.1Wesley Matthews misses running pullup jump shot105–128
- Q429.2Wesley Matthews defensive rebound105–128
- Q433.1Darius Garland misses 33-foot step back jumpshot105–128
- Q447.1Bruno Fernando makes dunk105–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:38Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot step back jumpshotATL 61 – 67 CLE · CLE 61% → 69% +8CLE 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q39:56Dejounte Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)ATL 66 – 69 CLE · ATL 30% → 39% +8ATL 30% → 39%+8 pts
- Q39:23Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Max Strus assists)ATL 66 – 72 CLE · CLE 61% → 70% +9CLE 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q31:26Georges Niang makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Isaac Okoro assists)ATL 85 – 94 CLE · CLE 74% → 82% +9CLE 74% → 82%+9 pts
- Q328.1Darius Garland makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotATL 87 – 99 CLE · CLE 80% → 90% +9CLE 80% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CLE 51%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.9 – 117.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | +36 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +6 Elo | CLE 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30123.6 | Points scored | 110.822nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.1 | Points allowed | 112.614th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.4 | Margin | −1.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 109.724th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 111.516th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.0 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 4–521st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.