San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints14
- Cedi OsmanAssists5
- Charles BasseyRebounds11
Pelicans- Jonas ValanciunasPoints24
- CJ McCollumAssists8
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–121
- Q41.0Brandon Ingram defensive rebound106–121
- Q44.0Sandro Mamukelashvili misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot106–121
- Q411.1shot clock turnover106–121
- Q432.1Brandon Ingram defensive rebound106–121
- Q435.1Sandro Mamukelashvili offensive rebound106–121
- Q435.1Julian Champagnie misses 22-foot three point jumper106–121
- Q436.1Herbert Jones blocks Sandro Mamukelashvili 's 2-foot driving layup106–121
- Q446.1Brandon Ingram makes 8-foot two point shot (CJ McCollum assists)106–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:11Malaki Branham makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)SA 47 – 42 NO · SA 29% → 36% +7SA 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q23:50Tre Jones makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cedi Osman assists)SA 54 – 48 NO · SA 32% → 40% +8SA 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q23:24Herbert Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)SA 54 – 51 NO · NO 60% → 67% +8NO 60% → 67%+8 pts
- Q311:42Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)SA 64 – 63 NO · SA 22% → 30% +7SA 22% → 30%+7 pts
- Q410:48Jeremy Sochan makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 86 – 91 NO · SA 10% → 17% +7SA 10% → 17%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -12
- NO 87%
- Fair odds
- NO -422
- SA +422 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 110.4 – 121.4 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1389 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −36 | +73 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +330 Elo | NO 87.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 80.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 80.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.8 | Points scored | 113.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 30124.1 | Points allowed | 113.015th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.3 | Margin | +0.417th of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.8 | Offense rating | 111.218th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 110.812th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.5 | Pace | 102.09th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 7–412th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.