Philadelphia 76ers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints33
- Patrick BeverleyAssists7
- Robert CovingtonRebounds7
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints33
- Zion WilliamsonAssists6
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–124
- Q414.1Mo Bamba makes driving layup114–124
- Q422.1Paul Reed offensive rebound112–124
- Q424.1Mo Bamba misses free throw 1 of 1112–124
- Q424.1Jonas Valanciunas shooting foul112–124
- Q424.1Mo Bamba makes layup (KJ Martin assists)112–124
- Q438.0Zion Williamson makes 2-foot layup (Jonas Valanciunas assists)110–124
- Q438.1Jonas Valanciunas offensive rebound110–122
- Q440.0CJ McCollum misses driving layup110–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:14Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marcus Morris Sr. assists)PHI 3 – 4 NO · PHI 39% → 45% +6PHI 39% → 45%+6 pts
- Q18:51CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)PHI 3 – 12 NO · NO 65% → 71% +6NO 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q17:42De'Anthony Melton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marcus Morris Sr. assists)PHI 6 – 14 NO · PHI 25% → 31% +6PHI 25% → 31%+6 pts
- Q16:00CJ McCollum makes 22-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)PHI 8 – 21 NO · NO 73% → 78% +5NO 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q11:58Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)PHI 19 – 34 NO · NO 78% → 83% +5NO 78% → 83%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- NO 49%
- Fair odds
- NO -112
- PHI +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.1 – 114.9 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | +55 | PHI: Missing Joel Embiid −63 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +7 Elo | PHI 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.5 | Points scored | 112.818th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 112.915th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.8 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.0 | Offense rating | 110.520th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 110.612th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.7 | Pace | 102.110th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 2nd of 305–2 | Road vs home | 6–414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+39 Elo- Joel Embiid illness−63 Elo
Pelicans
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.