Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Fred VanVleetPoints26
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints23
- Reggie JacksonAssists6
- Nikola JokicRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–106
- Q417.1Rockets defensive team rebound114–106
- Q421.0Reggie Jackson misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot114–106
- Q426.1Fred VanVleet makes free throw 2 of 2114–106
- Q426.1Rockets offensive team rebound113–106
- Q426.1Fred VanVleet misses free throw 1 of 2113–106
- Q426.1Nikola Jokic personal take foul113–106
- Q427.1Reggie Jackson makes driving layup113–106
- Q434.2Jeff Green enters the game for Jalen Green113–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three pointer (Nikola Jokic assists)HOU 52 – 48 DEN · DEN 40% → 49% +9DEN 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q310:10Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 59 – 52 DEN · HOU 52% → 61% +9HOU 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q37:48Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)HOU 64 – 61 DEN · DEN 40% → 50% +10DEN 40% → 50%+10 pts
- Q36:33Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 70 – 61 DEN · HOU 61% → 70% +9HOU 61% → 70%+9 pts
- Q34:57Aaron Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 75 – 65 DEN · HOU 65% → 74% +9HOU 65% → 74%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2.5
- DEN 60%
- Fair odds
- DEN -184
- HOU +184 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 108.5 – 113.2 DEN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | +116 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +72 Elo | DEN 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 64.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 114.014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.9 | Points allowed | 110.57th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+3.2 | Margin | +3.58th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 114.99th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 111.313th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.5 | Pace | 99.127th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–8 | Road vs home | 9–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+116 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–1 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.