Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints36
- Nikola JokicAssists14
- Nikola JokicRebounds13
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints26
- De'Aaron FoxAssists16
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–123
- Q40.0Nuggets offensive team rebound117–123
- Q40.0Kentavious Caldwell-Pope misses 35-foot three point pullup jump shot117–123
- Q42.2De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2117–123
- Q42.2De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2117–122
- Q42.2Reggie Jackson personal take foul117–121
- Q45.0Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot three pointer117–121
- Q410.1Nikola Jokic defensive rebound114–121
- Q412.1De'Aaron Fox misses free throw 2 of 2114–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:29Aaron Gordon makes 22-foot three point jumper (Reggie Jackson assists)DEN 103 – 108 SAC · DEN 9% → 20% +11DEN 9% → 20%+11 pts
- Q43:59Malik Monk makes 11-foot two point shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)DEN 105 – 110 SAC · SAC 71% → 82% +11SAC 71% → 82%+11 pts
- Q43:26De'Aaron Fox makes 10-foot two point shotDEN 107 – 112 SAC · SAC 72% → 84% +11SAC 72% → 84%+11 pts
- Q43:06Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Reggie Jackson assists)DEN 110 – 112 SAC · DEN 15% → 34% +19DEN 15% → 34%+19 pts
- Q42:44De'Aaron Fox makes 12-foot pullup jump shotDEN 110 – 114 SAC · SAC 67% → 81% +14SAC 67% → 81%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- SAC 50%
- Fair odds
- SAC -101
- DEN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 115.2 – 115.3 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +131 | +55 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +3 Elo | DEN 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 116.111th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 116.721st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.6 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 112.913th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 113.519th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.7 | Pace | 101.613th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 5–28th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+131 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.