Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints29
- Stephen CurryAssists6
- Stephen CurryRebounds10
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints29
- Domantas SabonisAssists10
- De'Aaron FoxRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–124
- Q40.0Warriors offensive team rebound123–124
- Q40.0Stephen Curry misses 36-foot three point pullup jump shot123–124
- Q47.1Malik Monk makes 13-foot two point shot123–124
- Q422.1Kings Full timeout123–122
- Q429.1Draymond Green out of bounds bad pass turnover123–122
- Q437.1Malik Monk makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Kevin Huerter assists)123–122
- Q444.1Stephen Curry bad pass (Malik Monk steals)123–119
- Q450.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2123–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:06Sasha Vezenkov makes 27-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)GS 113 – 114 SAC · SAC 42% → 61% +19SAC 42% → 61%+19 pts
- Q44:55Moses Moody makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)GS 116 – 114 SAC · GS 39% → 58% +19GS 39% → 58%+19 pts
- Q43:40Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)GS 119 – 114 SAC · GS 61% → 80% +19GS 61% → 80%+19 pts
- Q437.1Malik Monk makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Kevin Huerter assists)GS 123 – 122 SAC · SAC 4% → 34% +30SAC 4% → 34%+30 pts
- Q47.1Malik Monk makes 13-foot two point shotGS 123 – 124 SAC · SAC 15% → 86% +71SAC 15% → 86%+71 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -3.5
- SAC 63%
- Fair odds
- SAC -176
- GS +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 113.0 – 117.3 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | +51 | GS: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +92 Elo | SAC 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 63.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 115.510th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 115.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.217th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 112.312th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 112.119th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.415th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 4th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 4–17th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 2–0 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.