Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints21
- Nikola JokicAssists16
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds10
Suns- Jusuf NurkicPoints31
- Kevin DurantAssists11
- Grayson AllenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–111
- Q40.0Suns offensive team rebound119–111
- Q40.0Josh Okogie misses 27-foot three point jumper119–111
- Q45.0Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2119–111
- Q45.0Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Kevin Durant118–111
- Q45.0Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2118–111
- Q45.0Grayson Allen personal foul117–111
- Q416.1Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound117–111
- Q420.1Josh Okogie misses 23-foot three point jumper117–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:35Grayson Allen makes 30-foot three pointer (Eric Gordon assists)DEN 94 – 94 PHX · PHX 35% → 48% +13PHX 35% → 48%+13 pts
- Q45:02Nikola Jokic makes 9-foot jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)DEN 107 – 104 PHX · DEN 58% → 70% +12DEN 58% → 70%+12 pts
- Q43:38Jusuf Nurkic makes driving layupDEN 107 – 106 PHX · PHX 27% → 41% +14PHX 27% → 41%+14 pts
- Q43:02Michael Porter Jr. makes 20-foot step back jumpshot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 111 – 108 PHX · DEN 60% → 74% +15DEN 60% → 74%+15 pts
- Q42:33Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 114 – 108 PHX · DEN 76% → 92% +16DEN 76% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -0.5
- DEN 53%
- Fair odds
- DEN -124
- PHX +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 115.3 – 113.7 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +127 | +46 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +20 Elo | DEN 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 116.49th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 113.217th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +3.310th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 115.310th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 112.117th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.7 | Pace | 99.026th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 4–420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+127 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.