Phoenix Suns at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints30
- Kevin DurantAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds14
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints23
- Dennis SchroderAssists12
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–112
- Q46.1Pascal Siakam defensive rebound105–112
- Q48.0Jordan Goodwin misses two point shot105–112
- Q415.2Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2105–112
- Q415.2Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2105–111
- Q415.2Eric Gordon personal foul105–110
- Q418.1Jordan Goodwin personal foul105–110
- Q419.2Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound105–110
- Q422.2Kevin Durant misses 26-foot three point jumper105–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:36Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)PHX 74 – 77 TOR · TOR 41% → 52% +11TOR 41% → 52%+11 pts
- Q49:53Scottie Barnes makes 25-foot three pointerPHX 86 – 91 TOR · TOR 52% → 65% +13TOR 52% → 65%+13 pts
- Q47:25Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three pointer (Jusuf Nurkic assists)PHX 93 – 99 TOR · PHX 15% → 26% +11PHX 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q42:21Jusuf Nurkic makes 5-foot two point shotPHX 103 – 105 TOR · PHX 20% → 35% +15PHX 20% → 35%+15 pts
- Q42:08O.G. Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)PHX 103 – 108 TOR · TOR 66% → 88% +22TOR 66% → 88%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -5
- PHX 69%
- Fair odds
- PHX -187
- TOR +187 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 116.6 – 111.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +100 | +25 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +137 Elo | PHX 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 111.422nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 112.613th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | −1.122nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 109.325th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 110.411th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.1 | Pace | 100.619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–2 | Road vs home | 5–416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.