LA Clippers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints34
- Russell WestbrookAssists8
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds9
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints40
- Kevin HuerterAssists5
- De'Aaron FoxRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game131–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter131–117
- Q41.1shot clock turnover131–117
- Q421.1Colby Jones makes layup131–117
- Q422.0Colby Jones offensive rebound131–115
- Q424.1Kessler Edwards misses 24-foot three point jumper131–115
- Q426.1Davion Mitchell defensive rebound131–115
- Q432.1Terance Mann misses alley oop dunk shot131–115
- Q438.1Colby Jones bad pass (Bones Hyland steals)131–115
- Q448.2Terance Mann makes 5-foot two point shot131–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:00Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)LAC 29 – 21 SAC · LAC 56% → 63% +7LAC 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q11.0Paul George makes 24-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)LAC 35 – 27 SAC · LAC 57% → 64% +7LAC 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q27:01Davion Mitchell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)LAC 48 – 42 SAC · SAC 32% → 40% +7SAC 32% → 40%+7 pts
- Q25:52Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumperLAC 54 – 44 SAC · LAC 63% → 71% +7LAC 63% → 71%+7 pts
- Q25:19Domantas Sabonis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)LAC 54 – 47 SAC · SAC 29% → 36% +7SAC 29% → 36%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1
- SAC 55%
- Fair odds
- SAC -128
- LAC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.8 – 113.7 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +39 | +57 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +34 Elo | SAC 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.8 | Points scored | 116.110th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 115.821st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +0.318th of 30 |
| 20th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 112.611th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.2 | Defense rating | 112.319th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.5 | Pace | 101.713th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 5–17th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.