Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints23
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints25
- James HardenAssists11
- Daniel TheisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–111
- Q410.0Norman Powell defensive rebound102–111
- Q414.2Jamal Murray misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot102–111
- Q421.1Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 2102–111
- Q421.1Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 2102–110
- Q421.1Jamal Murray personal take foul102–109
- Q423.0Jamal Murray makes 28-foot three pointer102–109
- Q430.2Paul George makes free throw 2 of 299–109
- Q430.2Michael Porter Jr. enters the game for Christian Braun99–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:58Reggie Jackson makes 26-foot three pointer (Peyton Watson assists)DEN 85 – 84 LAC · DEN 44% → 58% +14DEN 44% → 58%+14 pts
- Q49:35Paul George makes 28-foot three pointerDEN 85 – 87 LAC · LAC 42% → 56% +14LAC 42% → 56%+14 pts
- Q48:59Paul George makes 26-foot three pointerDEN 87 – 90 LAC · LAC 47% → 61% +14LAC 47% → 61%+14 pts
- Q45:01James Harden makes 26-foot step back jumpshotDEN 91 – 95 LAC · LAC 54% → 72% +18LAC 54% → 72%+18 pts
- Q44:02Kawhi Leonard makes 3-foot jumper (James Harden assists)DEN 93 – 97 LAC · LAC 62% → 75% +13LAC 62% → 75%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1
- DEN 54%
- Fair odds
- DEN -131
- LAC +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 113.3 – 111.3 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +129 | +55 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +28 Elo | DEN 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 112.918th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 109.75th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.1 | Margin | +3.39th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 112.116th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 108.96th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.2 | Pace | 100.221st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 18th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 6–39th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+129 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DEN 2–0 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.