Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints22
- Stephen CurryAssists11
- Draymond GreenRebounds9
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints25
- James HardenAssists9
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–113
- Q40.0Warriors offensive team rebound112–113
- Q40.0Draymond Green misses 23-foot three point jumper112–113
- Q48.2Warriors Full timeout112–113
- Q49.2Paul George makes 26-foot step back jumpshot112–113
- Q415.0Russell Westbrook defensive rebound112–110
- Q418.0Stephen Curry misses 18-foot step back jumpshot112–110
- Q435.1Russell Westbrook enters the game for James Harden112–110
- Q435.1Stephen Curry enters the game for Cory Joseph112–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:08Paul George makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)GS 105 – 102 LAC · LAC 16% → 32% +16LAC 16% → 32%+16 pts
- Q42:39Kawhi Leonard makes 15-foot pullup jump shot (James Harden assists)GS 105 – 104 LAC · LAC 27% → 43% +16LAC 27% → 43%+16 pts
- Q42:04Kawhi Leonard makes 12-foot pullup jump shotGS 107 – 106 LAC · LAC 24% → 42% +18LAC 24% → 42%+18 pts
- Q41:38Brandin Podziemski makes layup (Draymond Green assists)GS 109 – 106 LAC · GS 60% → 79% +19GS 60% → 79%+19 pts
- Q49.2Paul George makes 26-foot step back jumpshotGS 112 – 113 LAC · LAC 3% → 82% +79LAC 3% → 82%+79 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2
- LAC 58%
- Fair odds
- LAC -133
- GS +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 112.3 – 114.5 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +54 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +53 Elo | LAC 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 57.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 112.917th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 109.66th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +3.49th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 112.215th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 108.97th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.4 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.