LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints23
- Paul GeorgeAssists10
- Ivica ZubacRebounds13
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints26
- Stephen CurryAssists8
- Brandin PodziemskiRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–120
- Q42.2Terance Mann makes 22-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)114–120
- Q45.0Russell Westbrook offensive rebound111–120
- Q48.1Kobe Brown misses 27-foot three point jumper111–120
- Q415.2Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2111–120
- Q415.2Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2111–119
- Q415.2Amir Coffey personal take foul111–118
- Q417.1Moussa Diabate makes free throw 2 of 2111–118
- Q417.1Moussa Diabate makes free throw 1 of 2110–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:57Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three point shot (Draymond Green assists)LAC 60 – 69 GS · GS 72% → 80% +8GS 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q49:53Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)LAC 82 – 92 GS · GS 81% → 89% +8GS 81% → 89%+8 pts
- Q47:05Daniel Theis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)LAC 92 – 99 GS · LAC 8% → 16% +8LAC 8% → 16%+8 pts
- Q44:32James Harden makes 27-foot step back jumpshotLAC 100 – 105 GS · LAC 8% → 19% +11LAC 8% → 19%+11 pts
- Q43:56Moses Moody makes 10-foot two point shot (Stephen Curry assists)LAC 100 – 107 GS · GS 83% → 91% +8GS 83% → 91%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -1.5
- GS 55%
- Fair odds
- GS -128
- LAC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 112.1 – 114.0 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +57 | +17 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +36 Elo | GS 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 56.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 114.712th of 30 |
| 6th of 30108.9 | Points allowed | 114.619th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.9 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 111.915th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 111.817th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.4 | Pace | 101.812th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–6 | Road vs home | 3–624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.