Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points37
- Desmond BaneAssists5
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds9
Suns- Devin BookerPoints34
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Devin BookerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–116
- Q41.1David Roddy offensive rebound109–116
- Q41.1Jaren Jackson Jr. misses driving layup109–116
- Q44.1Jaylen Nowell enters the game for Bismack Biyombo109–116
- Q44.1Nassir Little enters the game for Yuta Watanabe109–116
- Q44.1Josh Okogie enters the game for Kevin Durant109–116
- Q44.1Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Devin Booker109–116
- Q44.1Grizzlies Full timeout109–116
- Q44.1Yuta Watanabe makes free throw 2 of 2109–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:36Jordan Goodwin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)MEM 39 – 37 PHX · PHX 53% → 61% +8PHX 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q25:07Grayson Allen makes 30-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)MEM 41 – 41 PHX · PHX 58% → 66% +8PHX 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q23:43Kevin Durant makes 28-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)MEM 43 – 44 PHX · PHX 60% → 68% +8PHX 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q22:08Vince Williams Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bismack Biyombo assists)MEM 51 – 48 PHX · MEM 35% → 43% +8MEM 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q39:28Kevin Durant makes 28-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)MEM 53 – 53 PHX · PHX 54% → 64% +9PHX 54% → 64%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -6.5
- PHX 74%
- Fair odds
- PHX -231
- MEM +231 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 108.5 – 114.8 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | PHX and MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +12 | +82 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +178 Elo | PHX 73.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 69.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.7 | Points scored | 116.210th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 113.517th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.9 | Margin | +2.712th of 30 |
| 29th of 30104.1 | Offense rating | 115.210th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 112.517th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.026th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 4–522nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 PHX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.