Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints24
- Mike ConleyAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds20
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points21
- Derrick RoseAssists7
- Santi AldamaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–103
- Q411.1Kenneth Lofton Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2127–103
- Q411.1Kenneth Lofton Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2127–102
- Q411.1Luka Garza shooting foul127–101
- Q427.1Shake Milton makes 1-foot two point shot (Kyle Anderson assists)127–101
- Q438.0Kyle Anderson defensive rebound125–101
- Q440.1Kenneth Lofton Jr. misses 17-foot jumper125–101
- Q451.1Troy Brown Jr. makes two point shot125–101
- Q451.1Troy Brown Jr. offensive rebound123–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:22John Konchar makes 22-foot three point jumper (Derrick Rose assists)MIN 38 – 38 MEM · MEM 31% → 38% +7MEM 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q21:30Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MIN 52 – 51 MEM · MEM 29% → 37% +8MEM 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q248.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three pointer (Troy Brown Jr. assists)MIN 57 – 51 MEM · MIN 69% → 76% +7MIN 69% → 76%+7 pts
- Q39:51Desmond Bane makes 29-foot step back jumpshot (Derrick Rose assists)MIN 69 – 64 MEM · MEM 19% → 26% +7MEM 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q39:04Troy Brown Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 72 – 64 MEM · MIN 74% → 81% +7MIN 74% → 81%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5.5
- MIN 70%
- Fair odds
- MIN -181
- MEM +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 109.9 – 105.4 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +74 | +11 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +149 Elo | MIN 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 106.429th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.3 | Points allowed | 111.410th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.0 | Margin | −5.024th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 104.629th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.2 | Defense rating | 109.58th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.5 | Pace | 101.215th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 1–828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–0 MEM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.