Memphis Grizzlies at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints49
- Desmond BaneAssists8
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds11
Pistons- Bojan BogdanovicPoints22
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–102
- Q411.2Kenneth Lofton Jr. defensive rebound116–102
- Q414.2Cade Cunningham misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot116–102
- Q420.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2116–102
- Q420.1Jacob Gilyard enters the game for Jaylen Nowell115–102
- Q420.1Ziaire Williams enters the game for John Konchar115–102
- Q420.1Kenneth Lofton Jr. enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.115–102
- Q420.1Xavier Tillman enters the game for Santi Aldama115–102
- Q420.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2115–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:05Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three pointerMEM 64 – 69 DET · MEM 28% → 36% +9MEM 28% → 36%+9 pts
- Q33:14Desmond Bane makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Jaylen Nowell assists)MEM 76 – 75 DET · MEM 45% → 56% +11MEM 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q411:08Vince Williams Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)MEM 85 – 84 DET · MEM 43% → 56% +13MEM 43% → 56%+13 pts
- Q410:14John Konchar makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Nowell assists)MEM 88 – 84 DET · MEM 56% → 69% +13MEM 56% → 69%+13 pts
- Q47:50Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 30-foot three pointer (Jaylen Nowell assists)MEM 93 – 86 DET · MEM 71% → 83% +12MEM 71% → 83%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2
- MEM 58%
- Fair odds
- MEM -118
- DET +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 111.6 – 110.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1375 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | −40 | MEM: Usual rotation · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +59 Elo | MEM 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 54.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.9 | Points scored | 109.227th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 118.123rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.0 | Margin | −8.929th of 30 |
| 29th of 30104.1 | Offense rating | 106.627th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 115.423rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.2 | Pace | 102.37th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 1–929th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.