Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints31
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints42
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Julius RandleRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–118
- Q49.1Killian Hayes makes 16-foot pullup jump shot112–118
- Q418.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 2 of 2110–118
- Q418.1Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2110–117
- Q418.1Isaiah Stewart personal take foul110–116
- Q421.2Jalen Duren makes 1-foot dunk (Killian Hayes assists)110–116
- Q430.1Pistons Full timeout108–116
- Q430.1Jalen Duren defensive rebound108–116
- Q430.1Jalen Brunson misses free throw 2 of 2108–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:28Josh Hart makes 23-foot three pointer (Jalen Brunson assists)DET 78 – 83 NY · NY 67% → 83% +15NY 67% → 83%+15 pts
- Q49:45Ausar Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 93 – 91 NY · DET 31% → 44% +13DET 31% → 44%+13 pts
- Q48:59Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)DET 93 – 95 NY · NY 60% → 73% +13NY 60% → 73%+13 pts
- Q45:00Killian Hayes makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 103 – 106 NY · DET 11% → 22% +12DET 11% → 22%+12 pts
- Q44:31Donte DiVincenzo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)DET 103 – 109 NY · NY 78% → 90% +12NY 78% → 90%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -11.5
- NY 87%
- Fair odds
- NY -401
- DET +401 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 105.6 – 116.2 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −46 | +30 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +329 Elo | NY 86.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 79.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 80.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30109.4 | Points scored | 110.026th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 105.11st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−9.1 | Margin | +4.96th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.6 | Offense rating | 112.412th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 107.44th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.6 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.