Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Max StrusPoints22
- Max StrusAssists5
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints23
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–101
- Q411.1Cade Cunningham makes driving layup110–101
- Q416.2Cade Cunningham defensive rebound110–99
- Q421.1Donovan Mitchell misses free throw 2 of 2110–99
- Q421.1Isaac Okoro enters the game for Darius Garland110–99
- Q421.1Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2110–99
- Q421.1Killian Hayes personal take foul109–99
- Q423.1Killian Hayes personal foul109–99
- Q434.1Bojan Bogdanovic makes driving layup (Cade Cunningham assists)109–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:07Georges Niang makes 27-foot three point shot (Isaac Okoro assists)CLE 73 – 77 DET · CLE 34% → 45% +11CLE 34% → 45%+11 pts
- Q31:33Max Strus makes 23-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)CLE 76 – 77 DET · CLE 44% → 56% +12CLE 44% → 56%+12 pts
- Q346.0Max Strus makes 27-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 81 – 77 DET · CLE 63% → 74% +11CLE 63% → 74%+11 pts
- Q38.1Bojan Bogdanovic makes 27-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)CLE 83 – 82 DET · DET 26% → 37% +11DET 26% → 37%+11 pts
- Q44:20Bojan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot step back jumpshotCLE 100 – 97 DET · DET 12% → 25% +14DET 12% → 25%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6.5
- CLE 74%
- Fair odds
- CLE -214
- DET +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 116.0 – 110.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | −43 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +178 Elo | CLE 73.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 68.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 109.627th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 118.524th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −8.929th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 106.927th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 115.624th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.2 | Pace | 102.56th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 4th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 1–828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.