Portland Trail Blazers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints29
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists7
- Jabari WalkerRebounds12
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints23
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–95
- Q43.1shot clock turnover103–95
- Q427.1Jarrett Allen makes 4-foot hook shot (Darius Garland assists)103–95
- Q434.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2103–93
- Q434.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 1 of 2102–93
- Q434.1Caris LeVert enters the game for Max Strus101–93
- Q434.1Max Strus personal foul101–93
- Q436.1Shaedon Sharpe defensive rebound101–93
- Q440.0Darius Garland misses 25-foot three point jumper101–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:18Matisse Thybulle makes 26-foot three point shot (Shaedon Sharpe assists)POR 80 – 75 CLE · POR 47% → 60% +13POR 47% → 60%+13 pts
- Q410:35Shaedon Sharpe makes 26-foot three pointerPOR 83 – 77 CLE · POR 52% → 65% +13POR 52% → 65%+13 pts
- Q410:16Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)POR 83 – 80 CLE · CLE 35% → 48% +13CLE 35% → 48%+13 pts
- Q49:40Darius Garland makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)POR 83 – 83 CLE · CLE 47% → 61% +14CLE 47% → 61%+14 pts
- Q48:21Matisse Thybulle makes 23-foot three point shot (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 86 – 83 CLE · POR 40% → 55% +15POR 40% → 55%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7
- CLE 76%
- Fair odds
- CLE -264
- POR +264 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 106.3 – 113.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −38 | +58 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +196 Elo | CLE 75.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 72.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.8 | Points scored | 111.721st of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 112.211th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.7 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.4 | Offense rating | 110.321st of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 110.813th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.0 | Pace | 100.420th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Road vs home | 5–520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.