Portland Trail Blazers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints34
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists7
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints33
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists9
- Myles TurnerRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–110
- Q40.2Trail Blazers defensive team rebound114–110
- Q42.1Buddy Hield misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot114–110
- Q45.1Toumani Camara enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe114–110
- Q45.1Pacers Full timeout114–110
- Q46.0Malcolm Brogdon makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot114–110
- Q418.1Trail Blazers Full timeout112–110
- Q428.1Bruce Brown makes dunk (Tyrese Haliburton assists)112–110
- Q432.1Matisse Thybulle bad pass (Myles Turner steals)112–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:02Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 92 – 92 IND · IND 51% → 65% +14IND 51% → 65%+14 pts
- Q43:58Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)POR 105 – 101 IND · POR 47% → 68% +21POR 47% → 68%+21 pts
- Q41:53Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)POR 109 – 106 IND · IND 8% → 27% +19IND 8% → 27%+19 pts
- Q41:29Jerami Grant makes driving layup (Malcolm Brogdon assists)POR 111 – 106 IND · POR 77% → 91% +14POR 77% → 91%+14 pts
- Q428.1Bruce Brown makes dunk (Tyrese Haliburton assists)POR 112 – 110 IND · IND 2% → 17% +15IND 2% → 17%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -10.5
- IND 84%
- Fair odds
- IND -443
- POR +443 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 111.8 – 123.1 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −48 | +87 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +293 Elo | IND 84.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 81.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 81.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.3 | Points scored | 128.81st of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 125.530th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.4 | Margin | +3.311th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.2 | Offense rating | 120.91st of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 117.828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.6 | Pace | 106.51st of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–412th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 6–413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.