Portland Trail Blazers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints22
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists12
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints33
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–108
- Q40.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound102–108
- Q40.1Malcolm Brogdon misses 18-foot pullup jump shot102–108
- Q44.1Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2102–108
- Q44.1Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2102–107
- Q44.1Scoot Henderson personal take foul102–106
- Q45.1Bucks Full timeout102–106
- Q45.1Bucks defensive team rebound102–106
- Q48.0Shaedon Sharpe misses 24-foot three point jumper102–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:53Damian Lillard makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)POR 97 – 97 MIL · MIL 33% → 58% +25MIL 33% → 58%+25 pts
- Q42:25Deandre Ayton makes two point shotPOR 99 – 97 MIL · POR 43% → 61% +18POR 43% → 61%+18 pts
- Q41:31Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)POR 99 – 102 MIL · MIL 56% → 85% +29MIL 56% → 85%+29 pts
- Q41:20Jerami Grant makes 28-foot three point jumper (Malcolm Brogdon assists)POR 102 – 102 MIL · POR 14% → 44% +30POR 14% → 44%+30 pts
- Q418.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes tip shotPOR 102 – 104 MIL · MIL 53% → 92% +39MIL 53% → 92%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -10
- MIL 84%
- Fair odds
- MIL -396
- POR +396 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 109.2 – 119.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | +76 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +285 Elo | MIL 83.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 79.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 79.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.4 | Points scored | 121.13rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 118.424th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.6 | Margin | +2.713th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.6 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 114.822nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.3 | Pace | 103.05th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 7–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.