Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points44
- Derrick RoseAssists6
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds7
Rockets- Tari EasonPoints25
- Fred VanVleetAssists9
- Tari EasonRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–117
- Q419.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2104–117
- Q419.1Grizzlies offensive team rebound103–117
- Q419.1Jaren Jackson Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2103–117
- Q419.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes technical free throw103–117
- Q419.1Dillon Brooks technical foul (1st technical foul)102–117
- Q419.1Dillon Brooks personal foul102–117
- Q419.1Jaren Jackson Jr. offensive rebound102–117
- Q419.1Jaren Jackson Jr. misses driving floating jump shot102–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:51Vince Williams Jr. makes 21-foot three point jumper (Ziaire Williams assists)MEM 61 – 64 HOU · MEM 21% → 29% +8MEM 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q35:52Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jacob Gilyard assists)MEM 64 – 67 HOU · MEM 21% → 29% +8MEM 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q34:46Tari Eason makes 25-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)MEM 68 – 72 HOU · HOU 65% → 74% +9HOU 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q33:46Aaron Holiday makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jae'Sean Tate assists)MEM 70 – 75 HOU · HOU 68% → 77% +9HOU 68% → 77%+9 pts
- Q36.1Aaron Holiday makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)MEM 78 – 82 HOU · HOU 64% → 74% +11HOU 64% → 74%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -7
- HOU 75%
- Fair odds
- HOU -218
- MEM +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 104.4 – 110.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +25 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +193 Elo | HOU 75.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 68.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.5 | Points scored | 109.426th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 105.61st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.0 | Margin | +3.87th of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.9 | Offense rating | 110.023rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 106.22nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.0 | Pace | 98.828th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 10–13rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.