Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints35
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds16
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points41
- Desmond BaneAssists8
- Vince Williams Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–113
- Q410.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot120–113
- Q420.2Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2120–111
- Q420.2A.J. Lawson enters the game for Dereck Lively II119–111
- Q420.2Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Dante Exum119–111
- Q420.2Mavericks offensive team rebound119–111
- Q420.2Luka Doncic misses free throw 1 of 2119–111
- Q420.2Desmond Bane makes technical free throw119–111
- Q420.2Luka Doncic technical foul (1st technical foul)119–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:25Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)DAL 0 – 3 MEM · MEM 40% → 47% +6MEM 40% → 47%+6 pts
- Q110:52Santi Aldama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)DAL 2 – 6 MEM · MEM 43% → 49% +6MEM 43% → 49%+6 pts
- Q110:23Desmond Bane makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick Rose assists)DAL 4 – 9 MEM · MEM 45% → 51% +6MEM 45% → 51%+6 pts
- Q18.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 29 – 24 MEM · DAL 63% → 70% +7DAL 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q29:39Jaden Hardy makes 26-foot three point jumper (Markieff Morris assists)DAL 37 – 31 MEM · DAL 65% → 72% +7DAL 65% → 72%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3
- DAL 62%
- Fair odds
- DAL -148
- MEM +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.1 – 112.2 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +79 | −2 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +82 Elo | DAL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.9 | Points scored | 106.229th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 112.111th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.2 | Margin | −5.924th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 104.729th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 110.59th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.6 | Pace | 101.016th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 1–928th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+79 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–1 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.